Just a few years ago these same Western democracies were cheer leading the various "color" revolutions sweeping across the Post-Soviet space. After realizing the severe consequences these newly installed regimes would have on Russia's periphery, the Kremlin began to take action to turn the tables around culminating in the defeat of the Pentagon's Georgia project in the Caucuses, the a Blue Wave is sweeping across Eurasia.
Not so fast! - say some western observers. The same analysts that miss-calculated the rolling back of US/NATO influence in places like Azerbaijan, Georgia and Ukraine, are now predicting that this is a temporary set-back. One argument I heard recently was that the problem with Russia is, they don't have much to offer in the long run in terms of economic, political, and social security, thus the pendulum will swing back the other way.
During the 1990's this was certainly true. As the Russian economy collapsed, the Euro-Atlantic powers swooped in to fill the vacuum. Economically and geopolitically, the US remained the single largest super power on the globe. As the Newly Independent States and other countries lost their socialists subsidies from Mother Russia, their expectations for what they will get from the West was high. All they had to do was pretend they are democrats and soon they would get an invitation to the all exclusive NATO club. For them, money in the U.S. grows on trees, and since paper really does come from trees, thus, the US printed allot of it!
How can the U.S. regain a foothold in Russia's back yard without economic clout? Russia's long term economic outlook is looking good if you see the recent financial reports coming from Fitch Ratings, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, etc. Here is why:
Russia is starting a second wave of privatization with an aim to ensure Russia is a huge benefactor of capital from the world's financial markets. This injection of cash is expected to cause the Russian economy to pass France and Germany in the next decade from industries outside the commodities. By 2030 Russia's economy is expected to surpass the EU. (It could pass by the EU sooner depending on how optimistic the EU's economy will grow. As this trend happens, you will see even countries like Poland move closer) these reports are very credible in the financial world.
What about the culture of democracy and freedom? On the cultural side, the government of Ukraine tried to discourage a visit last July by the new Russian Patriarch. The pro-Western government would not even guarantee his safety in the predominately Catholic western region. The Governor of the Rovno region declared "not over my dead body will the Patriarch come here." The Patriarch ignored the warning and ironically the Governor was struck by lightning and killed just before the visit! This is a true story. The Patriarch then visited Rovno and rest of Ukraine and was received by thousands, even during his visit to the western regions.
Former Ukrainian president Yushchenko who appointed the now dead governor and the Orange Revolution never achieved anything with substance in Ukraine. I am not sure if that is a pendulum or was just a temporary blip on the radar screen of recent history. As for Eastern and Central Europe, once they see the cracks in the EU's credibility, they will leave the EU faster than they arrived.
Demographically Russia has to turn itself around. However, this is a problem even worse in Ukraine and rest of Europe for that matter. Eurasia will rise pass the Euro-Atlantic powers by sheer economy of scale. Whether the Russians or somebody else is controlling Eurasia remains to be seen, but Eurasia will be the center of things for the next millennia.
If a Blue Wave can take root, there may still be hope for the survival of Christian Civilization.
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