Monday, March 17, 2008

Does Serbia need to be in NATO?


(РУС) Some of my friends back in Serbia can't wait for Serbia to be a member of NATO. Even though they know first hand what it is like to be a recipient of NATO attacks, even though membership means giving up sovereignty, backing down on Kosovo, and abandoning other principles counter to Serbia's own interests, NATO membership has become some sort of mythical measuring stick that once achieved, assures that everything else will fall in place once membership is given.

One argument given to me is how Serbia's close neighbor and fellow Orthodox Balkan country Greece has benefited from NATO membership.

I am sorry but Greece joined NATO during a time that the Soviet Union posed a huge threat to European and Atlantic security which included Greece. During this time it was advantageous to be part of this security which insured more prosperity.

Geopolitical power has shifted in the last few years. Simply being a member of NATO or EU does NOT guarantee prosperity nor offer any magic wand to improve the situation in Serbia or anywhere in the Balkans.

One must take a look at Romania and Bulgaria and compare the investment climate compared to Serbia which is a powerhouse compared to Sofia or Bucharest. Their membership has not provided the results that they anticipated nor will it.

Furthermore, the ex-communist countries like Russia and others that are doing well economically are doing so because of their market reforms like a flat tax system and reduction of socialism that surpass free market characteristics in the EU. This is proven to improve the livelihoods of common people not simply enjoying security of NATO.

I will concede that Serbia would have benefited like Greece 20 years ago if it was integrated into the EU/NATO during that era. To do so today, I don't see any concrete benefits.

I do however see a huge potential for Serbia's prosperity if it can prevent its further dismemberment (and loss of strategic resources and outlet to the sea) and still be part of Europe and part of the "civilized" world without ever having to invite thousands of social-bureaucrats from Brussels to micromanage Serbia's further dismemberment. From an economic standpoint, I see no advantage if Serbia enters the EU or integrates to NATO.

Geopolitics has changed since 1999. The economic center of gravity is shifting to Eurasia (Russia/Caspian area) away from Brussels or Washington making NATO less relevant.

No comments: