Only a SWOT Analysis Will Tell If Things Are Good or Bad This year started with some dire predictions about the imminent and inevitable destruction of the Russian economy with ensuing widespread social unrest.

Will Russia turn Eurasia into the next Byzantine Empire?

The Roman Empire (Byzantine) lasted longer than any other empire in the history of Mankind, officially beginning when the former pagan Empire embraced Christianity in 306AD to 1453AD.

The following video clip "The Fall of an Empire," is a new film produced and narrated by Vladimir Putin's spirtual advisor and was broadcast on multiple occasions recently on Russian TV.
Click here for English translated video presentation about Byzantium. 

Russian ambassador visits Kosovska Mitrovica

This just in from B-92: “Russia will continue to support Serbia as long as Serbia opposes attempts of its own dismemberment, separatism and political bombardments,” said the Russian ambassador. This quote was taken from the last paragraph of the below article and sums it all up. Unfortunately, the Serbian government does not understand the geopolitical realities that putting all their eggs in the basket of Euro-Atlantic integration will undoubtedly fail Serbia and the Serbian people miserably. - TRP

17 December 2009 13:39 Source: Beta
KOSOVSKA MITROVICA -- Russian Ambassador to Belgrade Aleksandr Konuzin was in Kosovo on Wednesday, in the northern, Serb-dominated part of the divided town of Kosovska Mitrovica.
Beta news agency reports that he stated that the Russian Federation and Serbia had good political and economic cooperation, but that it was necessary to expand it to culture and education. Read more...

Kissinger on Russian Foreign Policy

This week I had the opportunity to hear Henry Kissinger speak at a conference in honor of the famous Soviet diplomat Andrei Gromyko in Washington, DC. Kissinger along with Anatoliy Gromyko, the son of the late Andrei Gromyko, revisited many important meetings and events that took place during the Cold War. Kissinger explained that people often mistake the Cold War era as a time when foreign affairs were simple and predictable since the world was divided into two camps. However, he stressed that it was not simple but a very complex relationship that managed to avoid direct military confrontation between the two super powers.

Kissinger also stressed how important Russia is even today. It is connected to Europe, Asia and the Middle East. It is the largest country in terms of area and resources in the world and it has nuclear capability. Kissinger criticized U.S. policy towards Russia after the Cold War.

It is no secret that Kissinger was a strong critic of U.S. policy from the 1990's to the present. Most notably was his opposition to the recognition of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a sovereign state, which he described as a "foolish act." Regarding the Balkans, he made additional public statements that the Serbs and Croats should be allowed to join their respective countries and that the Rambouillet Agreement which would have forced the Serbs to give all its territory access to NATO ground forces, "was a terrible diplomatic document that should never have been presented in that form."

Regarding the current US president, Kissinger joked, "Obama was my second choice." Although he stressed he disagrees with most of Obama's policies, he did compliment recent actions of the Administration for getting U.S.-Russian relations back on track. He also noted that the current policies Obama has taken towards Russia were the same as what he advocated to both candidates prior to the 2008 presidential elections.

As for Afganistan, it was noted that Andrei Gromyko was initially opposed to sending Soviet troops to Afganistan. Kissinger also made a point that he disagrees with the current policies in Afganistan regarding the US policy to create a centralized government. Although he supports the goal of eliminating the threat of terrorists using Afganistan as a launch pad of attacks against the US, he said outside forces can never unite the various tribal regions.

Several questions were put to Kissinger during the conference regarding Russia's recent disapproval of much of U.S. policies with Iraq, Iran, etc. Kissinger explained that it is not that they disapprove, but that the Russians are concerned that the United States does not know what it is doing in these areas. The worry is that the Americans will come in and leave the place worse than when they arrived. When one sees the resulting chaos in Kosovo, Iraq and other places where the US intervenes, the Russians may have a point.

The Walking Saint

While attending the Divine Liturgy at our local Serbian parish on November 15, it was announced by our priest that + Pavle, His Holiness, Archbishop of Pec, Metropolitan of Belgrade-Karlovac and Serbian Patriarch passed away. Although he was ill for years, you could feel the sense of loss among the people.

Founded by St. Sava, the Serbian Church traces its Apostolic roots to St. Andrew by its recognition in 1219, by the Church of New Rome (Constantinople). At the time, Medieval Serbia was arising as a powerful new country founded on territory that was given to migrating Slavs by the Roman Empire. Although deeply rooted in Roman culture and inheriting its Faith from the Roman (Byzantine) Empire, the establishment of a Serbian Church made it possible for the Serbs to properly embrace Orthodoxy by allowing the people to worship in their native Slavic language. This in turn enabled the Serbs to preserve this Faith through centuries of invasions and occupations by foreign enemies bent on destroying the Serbian nation.

Since then, the history of the Serbian people was a story of countless martyrs and persecution. In more recent modern history, the story has not been much different. However, after the disintegration of Yugoslavia in the 1990's began, Serbs found themselves ill prepared for what was awaiting for them. After decades of Communism, +Pavle was the spirtual counter weight to atheism and other post modern problems in Serbia. At at time when many Diaspora Serbs here in the United States were lamenting Serb losses during the 1990's and most recently Kosovo, +Pavle reminded us in one of his homilies, that more Serbs are lost to abortions than all the wars. His message was true. Only a true revival of Serbian Christianity can take Serbia into the 21st Century.

Just a few hours before the Church announced the loss of a great Patriarch, I received an email with the latest article written by Srdja Trifkovic called, "A Tale of Two Subversives Battling Christophobia in California and Serbia. The timing of his article could not be more relevant as we all discovered the next morning of the passing of the Patriarch. It is also now the beginning least officially, the process of who will fill the vacuum left behind to lead another generation of the Serbian flock.

Unfortunately the Serbian political elite are missing the boat. While they still chase the rainbows promised by European integration, Western civilization is being lost to the modern world, as the center of gravity shifts eastward towards Eurasia. The next Patriarch will have an undaunting task to lead the Serbian people spirtually. Already the acting Patriarch Amfilohije will give Serbs hope to continue in the right direction through his own wisdom and humility, but it is yet unknown as to who will assume this ancient throne after the elections. It would be a great disappointment if the next Church leader decides to follow the easy path of materialism and Euro "integration."

A friend of mine working at the Serbian Patriarchate once described to me the situation of the Patriarch who was beginning to fade. He told me it was like watching a candle when it burns to the end. The flames shoot higher just before the candle goes out. Let us hope that the next Serbian Patriarch can guide Serbs back to spirtual Salvation.

New Martyrs?

I don't know if this article is available online yet, so I decided to post it here rather than just link to it. I thought it is an interesting read. I often use what is happening in Serbia after its legacy of communist Yugoslavia as an analogy of what will happen in the United States. Some of the insane policies created by the communist regime are being played out by Washington! There are many examples, but the one I use often is how Belgrade allowed the Albanians to settle on territory in Serbia. As their population increased, the government just appeased the situation, granted autonomy and provided free services. Eventually this came back to haunt Serbia. Same is happening with immigration in the United States.

The original article will be printed in the CHRONICLES: A MAGAZINE OF AMERICAN CULTURE, December 2009, pp. 20-22


NOTE: This article was released just hours before the passing of His Holiness, Serbian Patriarch +Pavle. TRP

A Tale of Two Subversives
Battling Christophobia in California and Serbia
by Srdja Trifkovic

The intention of postmoderns to destroy real people, with their natural loyalties, traditional morality, and inherited cultural preferences, is the same everywhere. Its specific manifestations may be different in the United States and Serbia—the homes of our two interlocutors and my good friends—but the underlying motivation is identical. It is Christophobia, the incubator of countless secondary pathologies that are imposed and celebrated on both sides of the Atlantic under the label of diversity. Having suffered countless disasters and progressive disintegration during the modern era, how may Christian civilization be effectively revived? “For true-blooded Western conservatives, this is the overarching question of their political life,” says Greg Davis, as we savor boutique vodkas in downtown Santa Monica. “Conservatives are forever trying to get back to something better, sounder, nobler, truer. But how far back? A decade, a century—a millennium?”

I met Greg five years ago, while he was producing and directing the must-see documentary Islam: What the West Needs to Know. He is a soft-spoken convert to Orthodoxy, in his mid-30’s, with a Ph.D. in political science from Stanford and an abiding sense that our civilization is collapsing. Western conservatives, he says, are hoping to save the key institution of the West—namely, Christianity—but Christianity did not originate in the West, and therein lies the crux of the matter: “The development of the West since 1054, in opposition to the Orthodox East, was a revolutionary act. The West, at its core, is revolutionary; hence the shouting of our conservatives for history to stop, while intermittently effective in slowing the slide, has proven vain. The West’s defining act was the fundamental innovation of the filioque. The fruit of the schism was apparent in successive heresies and rebellions, which led to the wars of religion that would kill millions and tear Europe apart. Later subversives would translate the revolutionary logic into decidedly unchristian contexts such as the French and Bolshevik revolutions, with monstrous results.”

While the unraveling of Western Christianity has been under way for a thousand years, it gained a new head of steam in our time. With Vatican II, Greg says, Roman traditionalists were dealt a tremendous blow, and they are still suffering its consequences. Meanwhile, “The more traditionally minded Protestant denominations are now sprinting toward Sodom, while the newer ‘Bible churches,’ holding the line somewhat more effectively on the moral front, show themselves very much of this world in their Dionysian revels featuring ‘Christian’ rock music and self-help philosophies about how to succeed in the world of mammon without really trying. The job of shoring up what remains of traditional Western Christianity is, needless to say, not getting any easier.”

Orthodoxy, on the other hand, does not lend itself to the political realm, precisely because its kingdom is not of this world. It is impossible to turn Orthodoxy into a “movement” in the modern political sense, yet the Orthodox view on most political issues today largely tracks the views of traditional Roman Catholics and Protestants, in spite of their theological and ecclesiological differences: “Even in a decidedly Protestant and “revolutionary” country such as the United States, the Orthodox easily recognize the practical wisdom embodied in a document such as the Constitution and its principle of limited government. They are more than anyone averse to the deification of political figures and of the state that has been the bane of the modern era. But they are by nature ill-adapted to navigating the turbulent waters of modern politics, which grow ever more frenzied and anti-Christian.”

The Orthodox countries still outside the Western orbit have shown themselves routinely outclassed in the geopolitical great game to extend U.S.-style materialism and “democracy” to the far reaches of the galaxy. Davis points out how the Serbs have consistently underestimated the malevolence of U.S.-led designs on their country and culture, and how Russia naively undertook a series of Western-inspired “reforms” in the 1990’s that devastated the country: “Now, however, Russia is pulling herself together. Vladimir Putin, regularly portrayed in Western media as a cross between Nicholas I and Darth Vader, refuses to let his people commit suicide along the lines of Western Europe, which continues to renew its vote of no confidence in itself. With the ancient enemy of both Western and Eastern Christianity, Islam, once again making inroads into both, Western conservatives should see Russia and Orthodox civilization generally as a natural ally. Yet prominent conservatives continue to support the U.S.-led prosecution of Russia. Their support for an ever-expanding NATO, for the missile shield, and for Western-sponsored color-coded revolutions is the support for a revolutionary power that recognizes no limit to its hegemony.”

During the Cold War, it was still possible to regard the West, the adversary of revolutionary communism, as a netconservative force in the world, but no longer. Western, and especially American, conservatives are now in the illogical position of defending the actions of the world’s leading revolutionary power. For Western conservatives to remain “conservative,” Davis concludes, they must be willing to support the cause of the few genuinely conservative forces left in the world—namely, those Orthodox nations still willing and able to resist indefinite Western cultural and geopolitical expansion.

Bosko Obradovic is a Serb of Greg Davis’s age who is resisting both prongs of that expansion. He is one of the founders and leaders of Dveri (The Doors, www.dverisrpske.com), a Belgrade-based NGO distinguished from most others by two key facts: It does not get a penny from George Soros, and in its many social and cultural endeavors it seeks the blessing of the Serbian Orthodox Church and spiritual guidance from its hierarchs. Bosko is a philosophy and literature graduate in his mid-30’s, a teacher, librarian, and father of three. He was in the news recently for making a key contribution to the cancelation of the planned “gay-pride” parade in downtown Belgrade: “The organizers had everything lined up. The government of Serbia was supporting them because the ruling Democratic Party thought this was one way to show to Brussels that we are progressive enough for E.U. membership. All of the major media, all of the Western-funded NGOs, and countless fashionably enlightened public figures were on their side. This was supposed to be yet another proof of Serbia’s terminal fall, its readiness to sell its soul for the elusive ‘European integration.’”

In the end the parade was called off because of security concerns. Its organizers were offered another location, but they rejected it. This, Bosko says, indicates their real agenda: They did not merely want to march; they wanted to provoke. “Their goal had never been to protect anyone’s ‘human rights’ or to protest ‘discrimination.’ Their goal was to promote a clearly defined ideology, lifestyle, and value system, and symbolically to impose it on Belgrade and on Serbia by taking over, however briefly, the old city center. Their objective was also to assert their political power as a privileged and protected group that promotes modernity. Their goal was to inflict a devastating blow on the traditional spiritual, moral, and cultural code, to present it as marginal, obsolete, and doomed to die out. Last but not least, calling the event off amidst a blaze of publicity was a call to their sponsors to continue and even increase their largesse, because the job is not done: Serbia is still its ugly, reactionary old self.”



Bosko and his friends have been called some nasty names since the parade was canceled in mid-September. There have been calls for a ban on Dveri, supposedly for violating recently enacted “antidiscrimination” legislation, which was drafted completely in accordance with E.U. guidelines. He says attacks are “a compliment to all of us who are determined not to give up on the value system that has kept our people alive through the centuries.” He is nevertheless concerned about the future: “We appear to be well on the way to 2084, when totalitarian NGO types will impose their blueprint for the eradication of our traditional spiritual, moral, and national identity. The NGO elite claims to act for and on behalf of ‘the West’ and enjoys the status of protected species, but no such protection will be extended to anyone if they have their way. Our “democracy” is heading for the abolition of the freedom to think differently from the high priests of Western postmodernity. Just look at the media treatment of Metropolitan Amfilohije, our acting Patriarch, for daring to quote the Scripture on sodomy! Is it not paradoxical? The Orthodox Church and all other mainstream religious communities in Serbia are asked to refrain from stating their position on this issue because doing so makes them liable to prosecution for advocating ‘intolerance.’”

Bosko Obradovic sees the problem in clear-cut terms. Either the Church will speak Her mind clearly and without euphemistic evasiveness, or else She will lose the purpose of Her existence as the saving community based on faith and the teaching of two millennia: “The Church as a whole and individual Christians are expected to refrain from taking a position if it does not conform to the standards of acceptable discourse as proclaimed by those who are not Christians, or—to be more precise—who are determined anti-Christians. Of course, Metropolitan Amfilohije and other bishops did not have any choice: Rather than ignore the intended moral and cultural onslaught, they spoke out clearly and authoritatively. Their authority comes from the Scripture and the Fathers, not from our ‘pro-E.U.’ government, or the ‘progressive’ NGOs, or their foreign mentors. They also condemned all forms of hate and violence, in accordance with the Christian principles, but they, and we, cannot accept a self-isolation that can only end in criminalizing any open profession of our faith.”

Bosko believes that the exclusion of the Orthodox Church from Serbia’s social and cultural life remains the final goal of the parade’s organizers and sponsors. He points out that the chorus of condemnation and indignant disgust against Metropolitan Amfilohije came simultaneously from the usual standard-bearers of “all progressive humanity”—Helsinki human-rights groups, sociology professors, foreign-sponsored “independent analysts,” Soros-financed media outlets—and all had a common accusation: By daring to mention Sodom and Gomorrah, Metropolitan Amfilohije is “objectively” condoning violence and promoting discrimination. Ergo he is guilty of practicing violence and discrimination, of inspiring “far-right groups and all other extremists”: “Their goal is to force the Church into internal exile, just like under communism. This goal is the raison d’etre of many NGOs in Serbia. They always react swiftly and indignantly when the Church adopts a position, treating it as something inherently illegitimate. The Metropolitan’s scriptural reference threw them into rage, as witnessed by the media conglomerate B92, which has assumed the role of ideological prosecutors and star chamber. His reminder that ‘the tree that bears no fruit is cut down’ was twisted in the best tradition of the French Revolution and Bolshevism.”

So what should be a believer’s position on homosexuality—or, for that matter, on any number of postmodernity’s sacred cows? Bosko Obradovic concludes that on this and every other social and political issue of our time, a distinct Christian position can and should be developed: “My faith does not allow it, and I do not want to mistreat, threaten, or discriminate against anyone. At the same time I am obliged to confess my faith, to bring up my children and to contribute to my society in accordance with what has been passed on to me—even if this means suffering legal punishment at the hands of the state.”

That punishment is coming soon to America and Europe alike, and Christians like Greg Davis and Bosko Obradovic are ready for it. They know that the earthly and temporal powers of the state can and should be recognized as imperative only to the degree that they are used to support good and limit evil. In America and Serbia alike, they both agree, a Christian may obey state laws only if such obedience does not demand apostasy or sin. We do not know which of my two friends will be the first to endure martyrdom, but I fear that both will. ¤

Srdja Trifkovic is the author of Defeating Jihad and The Sword of the Prophet

Black Sea Wars by Pat Buchanan

Mr. Buchanan is right on target regarding the danger of expanding NATO power into the Black Sea region. His view that Obama believes in entente with Russia maybe over stating. The previous Bush administration miscalculated Russia's firm position against further NATO expansion in its own backyard. To save face from backing down, they passed it on to the next administration who now has no leverage and no alternative but to give in. However, you can count on this administration to continue the same anti-Russian policy as the previous if they get the chance. - TRP

Black Sea Wars

by Patrick J. Buchanan (more by this author)
Posted 09/22/2009 ET

In August, the Georgian navy seized a Turkish tanker carrying fuel to Abkhazia, Georgia's former province whose declaration of independence a year ago is recognized by Russia but not the West.The Turkish captain was sentenced to 24 years. When Ankara protested, he was released. Abkhazia has now threatened to sink any Georgian ship interfering in its "territorial waters," but it has no navy. Russia, however, has a Black Sea Fleet and a treaty of friendship with Abkhazia, and has notified Tbilisi that the Russian coast guard will assure, peacefully, the sea commerce of Abkhazia. Read more...

Mr. Buchanan is a nationally syndicated columnist and author of "The Death of the West,""The Great Betrayal," "A Republic, Not an Empire" and "Where the Right Went Wrong."

Russian Economic Forcast in 2010

Last week while attending the 2009 International Investment Forum in Sochi, Russia, I managed to obtain a glimpse of where the Russian economy is heading for 2010 and beyond.

The aim of my visit to the Russian resort city on the Black Sea, was to participate in the Forum in order to have a clear view of the opportunities that the Krasnodar region and Sochi will offer for a business client. Of interest was the short term / mid term construction developments and opportunities in the Krasnodar region linked to the Sochi Olympics in 2014.

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, opened the forum’s first session where he participated in a forum discussion along with Jeffrey Immelt, the Chairman & CEO, of General Electric; John Mack, Chairman of Morgan Stanley; and the founder and President of Texas Pacific Group Investment Fund, David Bonderman which represents the largest private equity investment firm in the world.

Putin made several announcements regarding new mechanisms for economic recovery to attract investments in the construction of infrastructure, power stations, roads, railroads and residential housing. He also announced the lowering of interest rates at the central bank.

Morgan Stanley’s CEO remarked that since the crisis, there are $5 trillion in the US and $7 trillion in Japan now waiting on the sidelines. As this money moves into the investment market, Russia will be a “huge benefactor of that capital.”

Because of the rising BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India & China) economies, the CEO of General Electric announced that already 80% of their operations are outside of the U.S. which partly includes Russia. The CEO’s presence in Russia was an initiative to further increase GE’s presence in Russia to take advantage of Russia’s vast opportunities.

Most of the above mentioned forum participants noted a reduction in corruption and an increase in transparency, specifically in the Krasnodar region. Krasnodar Governor Tkachev was congratulated for his efforts to improve the business climate in Krasnodar.

According to public information, the Russian government conservatively estimated last year that the 200 construction projects for the 2014 Olympics would cost $12 billion. The state promised to inject up to $7.5 billion, with the rest coming from the private sector. With the accounting of ruble losing against the dollar, the total amount has been reduced to $9.2 billion. The government estimates at least $2.5 billion will be invested by the private sector in Sochi alone.

According to the Forum organizers, 112 agreements amounting to €13.8 billion were signed at the forum:
- 64 agreements among them to the amount of €8.4 billion were signed by 11 Russian regions.
- The Governor of Krasnodar signed 35 agreements amounting to €4.4 billion.
- Krasnodar Region presented 1,500 investment projects totaling €27 during the forum

I also got the chance to meet privately with officials from the Construction Department of the region of Krasnodar, where much of the construction is ongoing. They also noted that there are opportunities in this region that are unrelated to the Olympics in infrastructure, logistics, and agriculture. International contractors are welcomed and needed to assist the local construction sector.

According to the Krasnodar officials, decisions can be and are made locally. I also heard from some other Russian government officials that they are encouraging the decision making process to take place locally and to not rely on the government or Moscow.

One of the complaints among Russian business participants was regarding business credit and financing. Russian banks were previously charging interest rates as high as 20% . One such critic of doing business in Russia was German Gref, Chairman of Sberbank. However, Putin replied back to Gref that the banks should lower their rates eventually down to 6% embarrasing the head of Russia's largest bank. According to one of my contacts at U.S. EXIM Bank, some previous recipients no longer need to rely on U.S. export products due to their success in Russia. However, foreign companies selling U.S. content in Russia can rely on U.S. EXIM products to reduce risk utlizing some of the stronger local Russian banks. As of this week, the Central Bank of Russia announced it will slash its rates to 10% and further rate cuts are predicted to follow.

Driving along the road from the Sochi seaside to the Krasnaya Polyana Olympic village where I was staying, there was much evidence of extensive construction, new roads, tunnels, bridges, power plants/electrical lines, and the beginning construction of a high-speed rail. Also interesting was the evidence of opportunities in the Krasnodar region not related to the Olympics. Besides the need for affordable residential housing, roads and infrastructure, Krasnodar offers tremendous opportunities in wine production, agriculture and timber.

Interestingly, other regions within and outside of Russia were also being promoted at the Investment Forum from Armenia, the Crimean region of Ukraine, Kalmyk Republic, and Caucuses.

I also heard from other Russian businessmen who reported movement in the construction sector was starting up again in the Moscow and St. Petersburg regions due to government intervention during the economic crisis.

In conclusion, Russia offers tremendous opportunities in construction, agriculture and infrastructure development which will offer long-term opportunities for investors. The forum portrayed optimism that Russia and the neighboring region will be a magnet for investment as the global economy recovers. Already Russia is in 5th place for foreign direct investment inflows according to the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development only behind the U.S., France, China, and Britain.

Despite the global economic fallout, Pepsi, Boeing, and John Deere have announced substantial large scale investment plans in Russia for 2010. As energy prices stabilize to normal levels, and demands increase on Russian commodities from China and India, new opportunities will open up in 2010:

• New wave of privatization – Experts predict that since the economic crisis, over 50% of the Russian economy is at least temporarily under state control. As major developers and retailers went bust and construction projects came to a halt, Russia’s top largest banks were forced to step in and take stakes in these indebted companies converting more debt into equity. However, experts believe this is a short-term trend. Recent government announcements indicate a new wave of privatization is taking place as the government offers stakes in these companies to private investors in order to close the gap on the deficit and to avoid heavy reliance of energy prices to maintain normal levels in the state coffers. This trend is also expected to follow with a new wave of mergers and acquisitions as private investors take advantage of lower prices, especially in the real estate sector.

• Krasnodar Region – Sochi will host the 2014 Winter Olympic games marked by heavy investment and construction of the Krasnodar infrastructure systems, Casinos and Black Sea resort developments.

• Energy – Russian oil production output this year has reached record highs since the fall of the Soviet Union. Russia’s Gasprom reports that gas exports to Europe have finally stabilized since the last year’s gas issues. Merrill Lynch Russia predicts oil will rise to $82/bbl before the end of 2010.

• Agriculture and Forestry Sectors – Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan contain the world’s largest land areas for agriculture and forests. At the height of last year’s economic crisis, Russia reported the largest grain harvest since 1990. This sector continued to grow in 2009 and vast untapped lands will attract even further agricultural development.

The presence of Morgan Stanley, GE and other US heavy weights support this conclusion. TRP

New party in Serbia supports merging with Russia

Some of my Serbian friends made some comments that throughout history Russia never really comes to the aid of Serbia. This talking point is bought hook line and sinker by many (but not all) of Serbs. What is the alternative? How helpful has the West been to Serbia in both recent times and throughout history? For more of my views on this topic, please see my earlier post on this topic: - TRP

New party in Serbia supports merging with Russia
26 August, 2009, 16:47

"The support [for the 'My Russia' party] is tremendous. And people are amazed that no one before actually started anything like this," founder of Serbia's "My Russia" party, Ivan Isakovich, told RT.

More....

A review of 2008 and the future of 2009

If I can summarize the events of 2008 it would be with one phrase: "Global Economic Crisis." Some of us have been predicting this for a long time. One of my colleagues several years ago predicted the collapse of Western power. His reason was based on the simple fact that the U.S./Western system was victorious over the communist system because it practiced free market principles, whereas the communist system could not compete. When communism fell, many of the former communist countries embraced free market capitalism while the U.S. and the E.U. have in practice become more socialist. Therefore, it is logical to conclude that if you believe in the free market system and, capitalism, then you must also conclude that when you depart from those principles the economy will ultimately fail. Even in the United States, where Republicans embrace the ideology of the free market system, the Republicans themselves took charge with expanding the size of the U.S. government and its socialist system. Even the republican President Bush himself "apologized" for his "abandonment of free market principles," after enacting the greatest government intervention of the economy in U.S. history.

I once had the opportunity to meet Newt Gingrich in Washington back in 2005. He predicted privately, that the Republican controlled Congress would be defeated and the Republicans may also lose the White House. Gingrich's reasoning was that the Republicans would be punished because they departed from the free market principles of capitalism which would lead to failure and make it easier for the Democrats to criticize their performance.

Interestingly, there are economic experts who have been warning all of us that the U.S. economy could collapse if its continues on its departure from capitalism. One of those experts is Peter Schiff, an advocate of the Austrian or "Vienna School" of economics has been warning the public since 2006. Both left-wing ideologues and pro-Bush Republicans ridiculed him on Fox News and other news programs. Now both sides are taking him seriously. This video below shows his accurate economic predictions as far back as 2006.


Despite the global economic crisis, 2008 can also be characterized by the following events:

• Independence of Kosovo - Metohija. U.S. policy set a dangerous precedent with the declaration of independence of Kosovo, which was also recognized by mostly Western states. Most of the rest of the world including some members of the EU have and do not plan to recognize Kosovo. The Eurasian powers led by Russia (See map of countries recognizing Kosovo independence) have strongly resisted recognition. It is also worth noting that as of this writing, there are still four members of NATO that have not recognized Kosovo, further demonstrating that the U.S. has become less relevant globally.
• The Georgian-Russian War led to the failure of the U.S. experiment in Georgia and complete destruction of Georgian military by the Russian military. Russia previously resisted recognizing Ossetia and Abkhazia based on Russia's policy to not change borders of recognized states. The outcome of this event was a severe blow to both U.S. influence in the Caspian Sea area and NATO's presence in former Soviet space. One can conclude, that the recognition of the break-away republics inside Georgia is irreversible and was a direct result of the U.S. policy to recognize Kosovo.
• Russia's reassertion to break away from communism was symbolized with the the loss of two important figures in shaping the new destiny of Russia. His Holiness Alexy II, the Patriarch of "All the Russias" passed away leaving a legacy of reestablishing religious freedom in Russia and for re-unification of the Russian Orthodox Church. His leadership in uniting the Russian Orthodox Church Abroad helped to reconcile the splits amongst the Russian people dating back to communism. Another was the loss of a great dissident writer Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn who once was living in exile, returned to live the rest of his life in his Russian Homeland. Both were recognized and decorated by then President Vladimir Putin for their contributions to the Russian people.
• Deployment of the "Home Mission" military force inside the United States was barely noticed in the "commentariat," (U.S. media). An entire combat brigade from the U.S. Army's 3rd Infantry has been deployed to the U.S. in case of civil unrest. The new U.S. military strategy of "Strategic Shock" to deal with internal threats caused by civil unrest was also revealed raising fears that the U.S. is preparing for a future crisis.

These important events of 2008 will definitely define the future of 2009. Unfortunately, the same analysts who correctly predicted the economic crisis of 2008, have even grimmer predictions for 2009. We all know that economies are cyclic. Many times in U.S. history, the economy boomed and other times it was in depression. What will happen to the world's greatest economy in 2009? Some say it will be a repeat of 1929 when the U.S. experienced the Great Depression. Others say it will resemble more like 1979, a recession that followed by a strong revival. However, my prediction is that the U.S. will experience an event similar to 1989. What happened in 1989? The collapse of the Soviet economy which resulted in its break up into separate countries. All three events have one thing in common, and that is that state intervention in the economies was the main cause of these events. However, the U.S. capitalist system always corrected the problems itself from the free market. In the USSR however, it was different. The Soviet socialist state intervention contributed to its demise. Likewise the U.S. government's interventions and state bailouts will also contribute to its own economic failure similarly as did the USSR.

The entire world has been impacted by the economic crisis. Countries that adhere to free market principles will eventually recover as did the U.S. in 1929 and 1979. However, the U.S. has made a departure from capitalism. The U.S. elite have a common belief that governments can solve any problems by just pouring money on them. Once the greatest manufacturer on Earth, the U.S. transformed itself into a service economy that is driven by consumerism rather than creating tangible goods. U.S. economic system has become a gigantic "Ponzi"scheme. Basically, the government spends and borrows money from foreign creditors. Countries like China, Saudi Arabia and Russia will stop providing credits because the U.S. cannot pay all this debt back. Nor can the creditors continue providing this credit as the dollar loses its value. Therefore to solve this problem, the U.S. will just print more cash. This will surely result in hyper inflation (like the USSR experienced) and eventually cripple the U.S. economy entirely.

How rest of the world recovers or not from this crisis will ultimately depend on the directions they make in their own policies and how the the global economic system redefines itself. Will they pursue sound conservative economic policies or will they experiment with socialism and printing more money. One thing is for certain in 2009. The new Obama Administration will bring about no change nor does Obama have any magic tricks to cope with the problems of hyper-inflation.

The other big question is if Russia can remain on course with its free market economic development. The Russian economy is also impacted and the demise of the U.S. economy is not a good scenario for Russia in the short-term. Russia has emerged as a significant energy supplier for the United States but is in the process of establishing more markets in the so called emerging markets of Asia. Certainly Russia may experience a "bump" on its road to economic development, much like the U.S. system had various times in its history. Although Moscow has lots of work to do, the biggest difference between the U.S. and Russia, is that Russia has reduced its size of government, lowered taxes, and has huge reserves of cash. On the other hand, the U.S. has expanded its government (thus increasing incompetence), and has accumulated huge debt that will certainly lead to hyper-inflation and possible civil unrest.

2009 shall be an interesting year.